The Thesis
Human systems are becoming observable
Organisations are not the hierarchies drawn on a chart; they are systems defined by flows of information, patterns of decision-making, incentives and constraints, and delays between action and consequence.
These systems have historically been opaque. Today, they are less so.
Decisions, communications, transactions and workflows increasingly leave observable traces.
For the first time, large-scale human systems can be studied empirically rather than inferred indirectly.
A common structure
Despite their differences, large-scale human systems share a small number of defining features.
They are only partially observable. Decisions are made on delayed and distorted information. Incentives are locally rational but globally misaligned. Outcomes emerge from interactions, not from intent alone.
This applies to organisations trying to execute strategy, energy systems attempting to transition, and governments attempting to coordinate complex outcomes.
“The mechanics evolve, but the underlying dynamics persist.”
If a system can be observed, it can be modelled.
If it can be modelled, it can be redesigned.
If it can be redesigned, it can behave differently.
This is the work of Tillbourne.